CHAPTER 15

“Challenges and Threats”

While “Controlling the Spicket in the Thicket”

By Doug Krieger

Pergamos Ministries

The Tribulation Network

www.the-tribulation-network.com

“RATTLING SABERS” HAS BECOME AN ART FORM

Before we get into “Controlling the Spicket in the Thicket,” let’s give a little update/background on the saber rattling going on in the Middle East.  Actually, the “rattling” has become somewhat of an art form in Middle Eastern politics, especially these days.  The rule of thumb is much like that of two domesticated cats contending over the food dish—a whole lot of clever posturing to intimidate, with a great deal of sound and fury, not signifying a whole lot when all is said and done. 

However, occasionally, someone gets hurt, especially if a new “order” is being established between the contenders for the food . . . and, one thing is certain, the overthrow of the alpha cat doesn’t come easily, if ever.

 “Challenges and Threats” . . . that’s why we’re “so happy together” (Beatles’ tune playing softly in the background as the “United Islamic Front” bestirs).  These profundities were uttered this week by Syrian PM Naji al-Otari (the fellow with the Western tie looking a bit dazzed) and Iranian VP Mohammad Reza Aref (with no tie at all in defiance of Western ties). 

VP Aref, given the fact that Iran plans to have the bomb (as in Atomic Bomb) within the next six months (over Israel’s dead body . . . Dick Cheney singing “Killing me softly with his love” quietly playing in the background), was adamant about the “numerous threats” and the “challenges and threats” that Syria and Iran face.

Meanwhile, a mysterious thing happened on the way to celebrating Islamic unity:  “. . . an explosion near a nuclear facility in southwestern Iran that initially was reported as a missile strike but later was attributed to construction work on a dam” (actually, someone was trying to sell the Ayatollahs a bridge and . . . well, you know the rest of the story).  Of course, all this posturing is couched in “economic strengthening” terminology as well . . . “and the band played on!”

Thetribnet has been talking about this “alliance” for months now . . . sure glad the press has finally picked up on it; of course, they’re leaving out the Turks in the equation. 

THE TURKS AND THE KURDS

You know, that “wild card” that everyone wishes would just go away . . . . Especially since the Iraqi Kurds turned out 26% of the electorate and fully intend to go ahead with their plans for Kirkuk! 

Man, that’ll make the 12 million suppressed Kurds in Turkey and the 5 million in Iran and the Syrian Kurds just thrilled to death to see a thriving Kurdish community stirring up the already boiling pot—notwithstanding Condi’s little reassurance to our recalcitrant Turkish allies who have had the awful experience of being betrayed by the alpha cat in the past.

Here’s what Bulent Aliriza of the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies says of Turkey’s consternations of an assertive autonomous Kurdish (a.k.a., KURDISTAN) state in Iraq: 

“The reality of it is that there is not too much that the Turks can do at this stage, unless they are willing to intervene militarily, which has immense consequences” (Consequences?  You bet!  Duh . . . guess who’s utterly dominating the cat dish?). 

So, the Turks hiss and growl deeply as they wait in line until the alpha cat finishes her meal (if ever)!  Meanwhile, that little Kurdish pussycat keeps growing, and growing and growing . . . like a little “Energizer Kitty!”  Iraq looks like a map of Germany’s occupation by the allies during the Cold War:

HEZBOLLAH . . . THE WILD CARD

Meanwhile, Condi Rice is busily pontificating and implementing policy left and right with her most hated enemy of all times:  Hezbollah (HQed in Syria’s backyard of Lebanon).  Of course, pulling out US Ambassador Margaret Scobey, shown meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus on January 10, 2004, was the least Rice felt she could do to protest the monster blast assassination of the popular, four-time, Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.  Yep, just the ticket to announce that the United States has a “growing list of differences” with Damascus.  But, the key to diplomacy is majoring in understatements like this one:  “The Syrian government is unfortunately on a path right now where relations are not improving but are worsening.”

In the Iran/Syrian vs. USA alpha cat fight, we hear the likes of White House spokesman Scott McClellan diplomatically announce that Iran and Syria are “misreading the issue.”  (Like, what’s the issue?).  McClellan followed that ambiguity up with:  “Their problem is not with the United States, it’s with the international community . . . both Syria and Iran . . . need to abide by the commitments they have made.”  However, the growling could eventually lead to some fur flying around and real soon . . . take McClellan’s not so ambiguous remark about the former Lebanese PM’s fate.  He called Hariri a “good friend” to the USA and said his slaying is “a tragic event of catastrophic dimensions.”  That’s a mouthful; let’s amplify that a bit:  CATASTROPHIC DIMENSIONS!! (There, I feel better already.)

Now, how’s about a little French rapprochement?  President Bush will meet with French President Jacques Chirac next week for dinner.  Chirac, who attended the Hariri funeral, and whose French government has always had its finger in Lebanese politics and fortunes, finally has a way to make it right with the USA.  Summing up Syria’s perilous and ultimate fate is President Bush’s understatement:  Damascus is “out of step with the progress being made in the greater Middle East.” (Note:  Juxtaposed to LOCK STEP!).

LAWRENCE EAGLEBURGER HAS HAD A CHANGE OF HEART

First we have the “progressive” former Secretary of State under George Bush, Sr., Lawrence Eagleburger, blasting the Bush W.’s idea of invading Syria; to wit (back in 2003):

"If George Bush [Jr.] decided he was going to turn the troops loose on Syria and Iran after that he would last in office for about 15 minutes. In fact if President Bush were to try that now even I would think that he ought to be impeached. You can't get away with that sort of thing in this democracy."

Now, behold what a difference an assassination makes.  Eagleburger this week on Fox News turns out to be a “hawk” on Syria (so he called himself) and thinks the US should “at least” bomb Syria a little along her border with Iraq.  Eagleburger was relentless in his criticism of Syria’s support for international terrorism and the insurgency . . . he was NOT the same guy you heard back in 2003!

Now, how do you “at least bomb Syria a little along her borders?”  Man, and this guy was Bush’s critic back in 2003 . . . as the world turns!  Certainly, the “winner” in all this is Israel . . . witness the immediate unraveling of Syria’s stranglehold in Lebanon.  But, Syria will not exit Lebanon easily or at all! 

DAMASCUS:  TRIPWIRE TO GOG-MAGOG

Again, the “final countdown” bears witness to “Damascus will be a ruinous heap” (Isaiah 17:1) and the “Messianic Scenario” affirms the same in Zechariah 9. 

Not only does Syria/Damascus initiate the final demise of Gentile World Powers, but Lebanon (i.e., Tyre) and the Palestinian Authority (i.e., Gaza, Ekron, Ashdod and the “stronghold of Ephraim” or “Ramallah”) will be overthrown and/or their leadership decimated.

Think not these are cultural exploits of ancient Hebrews and/or their distorted apocalyptic designs and desires . . . the Bible, frankly speaking, does not mess around with such hyperbole.  What it says, it means.  Again, the “King of the North” in Ezekiel 38/39 is identified as those nations comprised of Turkey and Iran (primarily) (again, see our series on the Gog/Magog Conflagration).  Likewise, the “King of the South” will come up against him (i.e., the forces of Antichrist).  Repeatedly, we have pointed out that for this to take place, these “forces of Antichrist” were required to be prepositioned in the region:  THAT IS NOW IN PLACE and more so as the days advance, you will see the West, the head of Western Civilization, that initial eruption upon the Plains of Shinar whose Image grew, then commenced to walk the face of the planet it colonized, take full “control of the hidden treasures.”

And, of course, this prepositioning bespeaks but a trifle of the nearly 130 nations which now have US troops on their soil!  The number of foreign military bases (US) approximates 750 throughout the world (not including the USA and its territories).

CONTROLLING THE SPICKET IN THE THICKET

Now, lest we lose site of the “hidden treasures” to which we alluded to in our first article on this subject regarding Daniel 11:40-45; to wit:

40And at the time of the end shall the king of the south push at him. And the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots and with horsemen and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over. 41He shall enter also into the glorious land, and many countries shall be overthrown; but these shall escape out of his hand: even Edom, and Moab, and the chief of the children of Ammon. 42He shall stretch forth his hand also upon the countries, and the land of Egypt shall not escape. 43But he shall have power over the treasures of gold and of silver (lit., “hidden treasurers”), and over all the precious things of Egypt; and the Libyans and the Ethiopians shall be at his steps. 44But tidings out of the east and out of the north shall trouble him. Therefore he shall go forth with great fury to destroy and utterly to sweep away many. 45And he shall plant the tabernacles of his palace between the seas in the glorious holy mountain. Yet he shall come to his end, and none shall help him.

Having power or “control” (as other versions have it) of the “treasures of gold and of silver” or those “hidden treasures” in the earth, is the explicit purpose of Antichrist’s designs in the region.

The original motivation for these incursions into the Middle East by the Latter-day Babylon the Great, and, consequently, the prepositioning of his forces in that same region, is simply to control the wealth of the region, plain and simple.  Yes, “Democratic Globalism” with a huge emphasis upon GLOBALISM and a tiny emphasis upon “democratic” as an adjective of covering convenience (to be used on an “as needed” basis).

Let’s consider how significant all this really is, i.e., spOIL (Ezekiel 38:12).  I realize this may appear to be “old hat” to most of you, but there’s always more “in there” that motivates this one to gain control of the earth’s resources.

TONY CORDESMAN TELLS IT LIKE IT IS

Tony Cordesman in a draft document for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, after the 2004 Presidential Election, encapsulated America’s “strategic oil policy” in no uncertain terms in his US and Global Dependence on Middle Eastern Energy Exports: 2004-2030

“The election campaign is over and it is time for both parties, and the Administration and the Congress, to be honest about energy. The US can and must find substitutes for petroleum, but this will take decades. In the interim, the US and the global economy will actually become steadily more dependent on energy imports, and particularly on energy imports from the Gulf. The Department of Energy estimates that oil will account for some 39% of the world’s energy consumption through 2015, and that the US and its major trading partners in developing Asia will account for 60% of the increase in world demand through this period.11

To substantiate Cordesman’s claim that Middle East oil reserves are going to be pressed to the uttermost in order to meet this immediate demand, let’s consider their capacities:

“In 2003, the Persian Gulf countries (Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) produced about 27% of the world's oil, while holding 57% (715 billion barrels) of the world's crude oil reserves. OECD gross oil imports from Persian Gulf countries averaged about 11.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) during 2003, accounting for 46% of the OECD's total net oil imports. Besides oil, the Persian Gulf region also has huge reserves (2,462 trillion cubic feet -- Tcf) of natural gas, accounting for 45% of total proven world gas reserves.”

Exporting prognostications of Persian Gulf oil, according to the Cordesman piece, look something like this:

“Also, at the end of 2003, Persian Gulf countries maintained about 22.9 MMBD of oil production capacity, or 32% of the world total. Perhaps even more significantly, the Persian Gulf countries normally maintain almost all of the world's excess oil production capacity. As of early September 2004, excess world oil production capacity was only about 0.5-1.0 MMBD, all of which was located in Saudi Arabia.

“According to the Energy Information Administration's International Energy Outlook 2004, Persian Gulf oil production increased from 18.7 MMBD in 1990 to 22.4 MMBD in 2001. It is expected to reach about 27.9 MMBD by 2010, and 38 MMBD by 2020, and 45.0 MMBD in 2025. This would increase Persian Gulf oil production capacity to over 33% of the world total by 2020, up from 28% in 2000.

“The estimate does, however, change significantly in the high oil price case: It is expected to reach about 21.4 MMBD by 2010, and 27.3 MMBD by 2020, and 32.9 MMBD in 2025.”

After “blowing out” prospects for tapping into North America’s abundant oil shale (too expensive to extract under current technologies or anything in the foreseeable future), Tony pursues a “friendly Iraq” strategy (PRIOR to the US invasion of Iraq):

“Changing Patterns in Import Dependence that Affect the US Role in a Global Economy:  This dependence will be easier to secure with a friendly and stable Iraq, but the US has no choice. The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) summarizes the trends in Gulf oil exports as follows in its International Energy Outlook for 2004, and it should be noted that its estimates are based on favorable assumptions about increases in other fuels like gas, coal, nuclear and renewables, and favorable assumptions about increases in conversion and energy efficiency:

“In 2001, industrialized countries imported 16.1 million barrels of oil per day from OPEC producers… Of that total, 9.7 million barrels per day came from the Persian Gulf region. Oil movements to industrialized countries represented almost 65 percent of the total petroleum exported by OPEC member nations and almost 58 percent of all Persian Gulf exports.

“By the end of the forecast period (2025), OPEC exports to industrialized countries are estimated to be about 11.5 million barrels per day higher than their 2001 level, and more than half the increase is expected to come from the Persian Gulf region. 

“Despite such a substantial increase, the share of total petroleum exports that goes to the industrialized nations in 2025 is projected to be almost 9 percent below their 2001 share, and the share of Persian Gulf exports going to the industrialized nations is projected to fall by about 13 percent. The significant shift expected in the balance of OPEC export shares between the industrialized and developing nations is a direct result of the economic growth anticipated for the developing nations of the world, especially those of Asia.

“OPEC petroleum exports to developing countries are expected to increase by more than 18.0 million barrels per day over the forecast period, with three-fourths of the increase going to the developing countries of Asia. China, alone, is likely to import about 6.6 million barrels per day from OPEC by 2025, virtually all of which is expected to come from Persian Gulf producers.”

O.K.  Reads like a technology bulletin and you’re bored to tears, right?  Well, consider these conclusions as a result of these petroleum needs:

“The EIA’s annual US energy forecast for 2004 predicts that imports will be even higher (i.e., to the USA). It reports that net imports of petroleum accounted 53 percent of domestic petroleum consumption in 2002. U.S. dependence on petroleum imports is estimated to reach 70 percent in 2025 in the reference case, versus 68 percent in the 2003 forecast. Imports are expected to be 65 percent of total consumption. In the low oil price case this number is estimated to be 75 percent. (Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2004, p. 95)

Now, the ultimate conclusion to all this is rather straightforward:

“There are no meaningful near and mid-term options that will allow the US to reduce dependence in any meaningful strategic sense at anything like today’s market prices for energy. The US must shape its security policies accordingly, regardless of what happens in Iraq. It must also shape them in light of US dependence on a global economy – not simply direct US dependence on oil imports.”

So, what is Cordesman really saying here?  Simply put:  US dependence on oil in the immediate foreseeable future is skyrocketing; therefore, the “US must shape its security policies accordingly.” 

That means we will continue to preposition our forces throughout the region and the little problem over in Iran will be resolved shortly!

The above map of the region PRIOR to “Operation Iraqi Freedom” . . . does not take into account the more than 200,000 US Troops and support units now in Iraq.  But, of interest since 9/11 has been the US involvement in opening up huge bases, not only throughout Afghanistan but also in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan (adjacent to both China and India).  “Proposed” oil/gas pipelines from the Southwest Asian sites transverse the area into China, Iran and India. 

Now, remember, the Persian Gulf oil is utterly dominated by the US . . . so, the new oil fields and additional drilling for both oil and gas with new technologies by USA firms in the Caspian Sea Region proves to be another “rich source” for certain corporations and, further “control over the hidden treasures” simply has proven too difficult to resist . . . especially in light of the growing demand for petroleum imports (by the USA and immediate allies).

But, let’s take a closer look at China and India, as a most interesting expression occurs in Daniel’s account of the Gog-Magog War.  After Antichrist (i.e., “he shall have power over the treasures,” etc.) has “stretched out his hand against the countries” (i.e., Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Libya, Sudan) something happens:

“But news from the east and the north shall trouble him; therefore he shall go out with great fury to destroy and annihilate many . . .” (Daniel 11:44).

Ultimately, you will see the pouring out of the SIXTH BOWL and these ominous words—words, I believe, driven by economic quest to “control the hidden treasures” of the earth . . .

“Then the sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up, so that the way of the KINGS FROM THE EAST might be prepared” (Revelation 16:12).

“And . . . the kings of the earth . . . the whole world, to gather them to the battle of that great day of God Almighty . . . and they gathered them together to the place called in Hebrew, Armageddon” (Revelation 16:14, 16).

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